the last thing we need is stability in the middle east

Aside from mass profit for various corporations, nothing good can come of our meddling in middle eastern affairs.  What do we have to show for our trouble?  There is no sign of Osama Bin Laden, Iran has become more powerful than ever before, resentment is growing in and out of the United States and the region considers us hostile invaders. 

It seems like an odd thing to say, but ’stabilizing’ the middle east and Iraq could have major consequences for the United States.  All of that ‘oil’ that we like to attribute as a reason for our middle eastern meddling may be snatched away permanently if we continue to act recklessly in the middle east without consideration of the consequences of doing so.  Shiites have control of both Iraq and Iran’s government and because our country is despised by just about everyone outside our borders,  an alliance could be brutal to America’s national and security interests. 

American sanctions against Iran hurt a lot less when there is an Iraqi economy that desperately needs goods that Iran has to offer.  Historically, Iraq and Iran have been divided and hostile with one another.  With Saddam Hussein gone, and the Sunni’s power quickly fading, a huge opportunity awaits Iran.  In some ways, the best gift America could’ve given Iran was removing Saddam Hussein from power and installing a dysfunctional democracy that Iraq must now contend with. 

Iraqi - Iranian alliance, a marriage of convenience

Our actions have all but ensure that Shiites will wrestle away control of Iraq’s government and band together with Iran on an international level to secure their common government interests.  With Shiites control over the region’s political infrastructure, America’s quiet influence over the region will soon vanish.  In fact, Shiite control over Iraq and Iran may prove more dangerous to American interests than the hypothetical crisis that Bush argued would arise if Saddam Hussein were allowed to stay in power.    If you wonder why Bush argues that our military should remain for another decade or more, you now have at least one reason. 

Bush’s invasion has shifted power in the middle east, possibly fulfilling his middle eastern prophecies. 

Iran has not given the United States a strong enough reason, or ‘excuse’ to overstep its bounds.  Iran sits pretty and patiently awaits its rewards due to American lack of foresight.  Expect Iran to continue playing nice with its new friendly neighbor and if President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad plays his cards right, he may inherit a windfall as a result of President Bush’s invasion of Iraq. 

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s - Iran’s new position of power and influence in the the middle east

More than four years after the U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam, Iran’s influence from trade links to political sway has never been greater — a fact bedeviling the United States as President Bush pledges American troops will remain in Iraq in large numbers. In his speech Thursday night, Bush warned that a U.S. pullout would encourage Iran “in its efforts to gain nuclear weapons and dominate the region.” Washington also has long accused Iran of sending arms and even fighters to help Shiite Muslim militias in Iraq that target U.S. troops, and both British and American commanders have called the fight in parts of Iraq a “proxy war” by Iran.

Iran disputes those allegations, saying it doesn’t meddle inside Iraq and isn’t trying to acquire atomic weapons. But Iranian officials do agree they play a strong role in Iraq, much as they do with the trade and aid they provide to Afghanistan on their eastern border, as Tehran seeks to increase its regional influence. “The Iraqi government and nation are close friends of Iran,” Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in an interview this week. “We are natural allies.” Complicating the U.S. position, Iraq’s Shiite-dominated government itself has sought close trade and political ties with Iran, whose people are predominantly Shiite.

Iraq and Iran were hostile to each other throughout Saddam’s reign, including fighting a long and destructive war through most of the 1980s. But when Saddam’s Sunni regime fell and Iraq’s Shiite majority took power, long-standing historical, religious and cultural ties between the Shiites of both countries flourished again. These days, Iran’s influence still is most apparent across Iraq’s mostly Shiite south. But it is also felt in Kurdish northern areas and even in Baghdad, where many new reconstruction projects — such as improving Iraq’s electricity grid — are financed by Iranian investment. “Decades of war and U.S. invasion have destroyed almost everything in Iraq. And Iran is well prepared to make good use of this opportunity to flood Iraqi markets with goods and services,” said Saeed Leilaz, an economic and political analyst in Iran.

“We are natural allies”, close friends of the Iraqi government,…

Iraq and Iran, like 2 peas in a pod

Has anyone seen Osama Bin Laden?  Most Americans –with the exception of maybe President Bush– hope to serve justice upon the evil man responsible for the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.

Fred Soto is an Attorney and Entrepreneur from the Silicon Valley.
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