Battle for the White House - President George W. Bush’s victim - fall of John McCain

President George W. Bush victim #1:  Republican Senator John McCain

McCain’s recognition as a war veteran / hero and his public image helped push him into the spotlight for a Presidential run (again). His strong support for President Bush morphed into heavy criticism that, among others, accused the President of mismanaging the war and of providing weak leadership on our war against terrorism.  The political strategy, I’m guessing, was to ‘take the hard pro-War anti-Terror’ Bush approach and suggest to the American people that a ‘good leader’ or a ‘real leader’ would be able to handle the job that Bush failed to do.  The net effect is McCain might gain from his storied past, maybe pick up the War boost effect, and grab some Moderates and Progressives along the way with a strong anti-Bush message. 

the First mistake: Alienating the Republican Base

The  political move alienated the Republican base’s current, but shaky, stance on the unpopular Iraq War. McCains political strategy opened the door to criticism and charges of hypocrisy as we saw happen to Hillary Clinton.

The difference, of course, is that Hillary doesn’t need the partisan ‘Limbaugh’ righties as much as she does the moderates and ‘centered’ voters that tend to favor immediate withdrawal from Iraq.   There is no science here, I figure if 70-75% of Americans favor withdrawal, the center is going to be tough spot for pro-War terrorist fighting (or strengthening, it depends on who you ask) warrior poets.   

McCain’s campaign says show me the money!

Generating campaign funds and convincing Americans to support him over Rudy Giuliani (also a terror fighting, super Presidential war machine) or Mitt “I’d double guantanamo bay!” Romney and his strong Bush war message is backfiring some, as I predicted.  For Democrats, the growing American anti-War sentiment is what put them into power in 2006 and will likely have an impact on 2008.  Where the anti-War sentiment struck first, is John McCain’s campaign and pocketbook.  There will be all sorts of other theories, “McCain is a whack job, McCain was never a front-runner, McCain failed to put forth a true Republican message, or Immigration was his downfall! (TBD)  I personally go with the “McCain always a bride’s maid, never a bride” theory and forget reason altogether!

In 2006, Republicans insisted that the war in 2006 wouldn’t hurt them, that Democrats can try to make it into a referendum on Iraq and the American people will do what is right: they were wrong, uhh or right, both?  If you peruse political blogs, online journals, or read the opinion articles of your favorite newspaper, again Republicans insist 2008 won’t be impacted by President George W. Bush’s failures.  The logic behind their ‘certainty’, is that American’s consider the quality of the individual not the party, not the President, or voting record of some other candidate! 

The truth hurts, but listen to your friends and adversaries!

If you don’t think 2008 will be another referendum on the Iraq war –e.g. a kick in the pants to Republicans over the Iraq policy failures – I’ve got a bridge leading to nowhere that I’d like to sell you!   Seriously, Republicans can say they care more about the individual for 2008, how else will your people get elected?!  Most Americans, however, are a lot more shallow, maybe more angry is the right word.  People won’t see past the message of War, anti-Terrorism, “Patriotism”, and a painting of anti-War policy advocates as “Unamerican”.  The fact that dissenters in general were characterized as unpatriotic and devil-worshipping liberals will come back and haunt the party.  I think the straw that broke the camel’s back was the use of war rhetoric against people in the party who were turning on Bush or anti-War.  With all of the animosity in politics, I doubt Republicans are going to say “I’m sorry for stiffling dissenters and calling them names!”  McCarthyism tactics worked while Bush was deceiving Americans and leading the Republican party astray, but it’s going to be ugly when the kharma comes back and haunts them.

There is no way McCain will rally staunch conservatives now because he has alienated their party’s stance.  In the era of partisan hackery, loyalty is everything, we are witnessing that people (like lemmings) will follow a party to the top and drop off the cliff when it comes to making a strong principled stance against party politics.  Also, John McCain can forget about trying to compete with anti-War candidates for the moderates and liberals, he’s got nothing.  In all, it was a bad political strategy, either lead, follow or get out of the way, right?

We can complain about how politics trumps the issues, I do it all the time, but the fact is politics is entirely gamed right now. It can be won by political soundbytes, rhetoric, attack ads, and sometimes there is an actual candidate with a “good message” that doesn’t involve shady tactics, but rarely.   I sincerely believe even the slightest hint of support for this current administration’s policies will destroy candidates’ chance at winning the Presidency and possibly Congressional re-election. I’d say McCain had the strongest public link, closely followed by Giuliani and Romney. [All 'front-runners' of the GOP] 

Republicans in the News

Giuliani was swift-boated through a recent recollection/attack ad by 11 firefighters angry over management of post-9/11 NYC handling and profiteering. I can’t see him recovering from that and I think anyone who has seen Ron Paul’s challenges / back-and-forth with Rudy Giuliani… just forget about it - he won’t win.

That leaves Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney - “The Mormon” who would ”double Guantanamo Bay!” I think Fred Thompson has a shot and my personal sleeper / favorite: Ron Paul and his limited government’freedom is popular’ message. His christian values and principled history would keep many Republicans at ease despite his anti-War ‘non-interventionist’ foreign policy approach which would please Dems.

Fred Soto is an Attorney and Entrepreneur from the Silicon Valley.
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